⚠️ IMO Update (10/12/2025): 51 Megaton Of Magma Under Svartsengi Volcano, Grindavik

IMO Volcano Eruption Report, Updated 10 December 2025
probability of a volcanic eruption at the Sundhnúk crater range continues to increase

10.12.2025

Updated 10.12.2025

Key points

Magma accumulation slow but steady in recent weeks

While magma accumulation continues, a new eruption must be expected.

Uncertainty about the timing of the next eruption is greater when magma accumulation is slow

The amount of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi since the last eruption is the fifth largest to date

The risk assessment remains unchanged until January 6, unless there are changes to the activity.

Magma accumulation slow but steady in recent weeks

Magma accumulation under Svartsengi is in a similar pattern to the past few weeks. In the run-up to the eruptions at the Sundhnúk crater series, the rate of magma accumulation has been variable. Looking at recent eruptions, model calculations show that the rate of inflow has gradually decreased with each eruption. However, the rate has remained fairly constant over the past two weeks.

While magma accumulation is present, the probability of magma flow and eruption remains elevated, but uncertainty about the timing of the next eruption is greater when magma accumulation is slow. The uncertainty about the timing, given the current rate of magma accumulation, is within a few months.

The amount of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi since the last eruption is the fifth largest to date

Measurements and modeling show that since March 2024, the amount of magma needed to trigger a new magma flow or eruption appears to have increased compared to previous events. According to modeling, the volume of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi between eruptions that have occurred since March 2024 has varied, ranging from 17 to 23 million cubic meters. 

According to model calculations, over 17 million cubic meters of magma have now been added to the magma accumulation area under Svartsengi since the last eruption in July. This is a similar volume to that observed just before the eruption in May 2024.
Model results showing the total volume for each magma accumulation period at Svartsengi from December 2023. The orange bars show the total volume accumulated before the next magma flow or eruption began. The red bar represents the volume that has accumulated since the July eruption to the present day. The gray shaded area delimits the volume that has had to reaccumulate under Svartsengi between the last five eruptions to trigger the next event.
Seismic activity low

Low seismic activity continues to be measured in the area, twelve small earthquakes have been measured in the last two weeks and they were located between Stóri Skógfell and Grindavík.

Risk assessment unchanged

The Icelandic Meteorological Office's risk assessment remains unchanged and is valid until January 6. The Icelandic Meteorological Office is closely monitoring developments and will update the assessment if there are any changes in activity.
Weather conditions in the coming days may affect the sensitivity of measuring instruments

The weather forecast for the area for the next few days is for the east 15-23 this morning, Thursday, with rain, but the southeast 10-18 and showers in the afternoon tomorrow. On Friday and the weekend it will remain windy with a chance of showers. These weather conditions may affect measurements, especially in terms of visibility and sensitivity of fiber optics, earthquake and real-time GPS measurements.
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